Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Pennsylvania

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Pennsylvania in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Pennsylvania in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 77.5% for Pennsylvania for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.764) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.011).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.4593 5.98%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.4915 -1.52%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1964 -3.04%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0912 -0.71%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0585 -3.50%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.1154 0.94%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0160 -0.37%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.4156 3.58%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0038 -0.05%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0125 0.06%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0194 -0.23%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.5681 -7.14%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.0850 -1.04%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0475 0.46%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0643 -0.50%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0991 1.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0315 -0.45%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.2450 4.81%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0097 0.12%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0729 -1.32%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0709 2.06%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0505 -0.15%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.1975 -1.86%
Low Income 0.0081 0.7025 0.57%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0334 -0.18%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1960 3.04%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0185 -0.34%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.5590 10.56%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0732 0.12%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.1422 -0.21%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0141 0.20%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.0506 0.31%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0083 0.41%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0008 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0351 -0.07%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0279 0.12%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.7874 1.74%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 144.0000 -2.64%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0090 1.92%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0453 3.90%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0975 1.85%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0152 -8.10%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0557 -27.11%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1391 52.25%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2654 21.86%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.0980 -8.75%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0343 15.54%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0400 8.87%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0399 2.72%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,106 for Pennsylvania for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 40793) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34688).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.4725 -$1,343
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5072 -$437
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1946 -$612
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0847 -$448
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0429 -$260
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.1125 $26
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0159 -$70
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.4049 -$941
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0037 -$23
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0106 -$29
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0190 $133
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.5638 $204
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.0884 $73
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0474 -$63
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0666 $376
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1031 $418
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0323 $276
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.2761 $266
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0092 $33
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0633 -$63
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0690 -$93
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0478 -$211
Single Parent 145.7630 0.2095 $31
Low Income -332.4067 0.6867 -$228
Homeless -446.4262 0.0325 -$14
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.1793 $361
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0184 -$36
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.6234 $504
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4544.9200 $1,660
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0658 $132
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.1536 $105
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0127 -$33
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.0515 $47
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0096 $145
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0006 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0257 -$152
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0276 $23
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.7823 -$161
Median Days in Program 3.2489 143.0000 $465
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0090 $218
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0453 $1,464
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0975 $3,827
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0152 -$732
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0557 $227
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1391 $13,455
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2654 $14,907
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.0980 $5,654
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0343 $370
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0400 $1,588
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0399 -$243

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 42.5% for Pennsylvania for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.461) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-7.036).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.4286 -15.49%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5798 30.25%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1437 -1.01%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0506 -5.05%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0254 7.43%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.1317 -19.04%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0147 3.13%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.2930 -16.62%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0141 1.20%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0245 4.85%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.6112 -7.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.0931 -1.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0626 0.46%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0590 -5.04%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0733 -1.47%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0123 2.26%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.3526 12.86%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0236 -0.72%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0617 -1.61%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0751 1.88%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0467 4.11%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.2221 4.74%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1643 12.83%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.2966 -0.04%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.0862 0.56%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0117 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.1676 -2.17%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0278 1.37%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0192 -0.55%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.7447 5.45%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 208.0000 7.38%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 285.0000 -6.95%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.0425 -0.04%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0090 9.06%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0453 40.43%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0975 118.26%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0152 -66.61%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0557 176.72%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1391 105.35%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2654 263.53%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.0980 25.31%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0343 112.85%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0400 -0.57%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0399 -54.02%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 83.8% for Pennsylvania for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.814) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.653).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.4454 2.65%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.3746 0.71%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.3187 -0.54%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1682 1.78%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1053 -2.01%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0667 0.79%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0166 -0.48%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.1923 -0.69%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0025 0.22%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0081 -0.08%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0095 -0.19%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.4978 -1.29%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.0786 -1.53%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0499 -0.90%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0993 -0.90%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1479 -2.14%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0493 -0.60%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0333 0.35%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0070 -0.02%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0401 -0.21%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0879 0.05%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0325 -0.82%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.1066 0.48%
Low Income -0.0518 0.2987 -1.55%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0068 0.02%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0493 1.86%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0139 -0.32%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.9010 10.19%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0296 0.17%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.7667 1.60%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0393 0.29%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.0703 0.35%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0005 -0.02%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0003 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0052 0.43%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0025 -0.13%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.8869 -4.54%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 188.0000 0.15%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0090 -1.83%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0453 -2.11%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0975 -16.64%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0152 -15.04%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0557 -34.95%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1391 -50.10%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2654 -52.94%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.0980 -27.96%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0343 10.45%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0400 4.92%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0399 1.64%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $8,561 for Pennsylvania for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 37489) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-28928).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4448 -$846
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.3842 $429
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3282 -$41
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1654 -$352
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0874 -$218
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0668 -$57
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0153 -$72
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.1876 -$288
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0026 -$9
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0075 -$26
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0091 -$34
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4977 -$697
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.0754 -$144
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0523 $4
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.1025 $156
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1480 $173
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0474 $102
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0358 $61
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0071 $27
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0340 $9
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0840 $121
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0308 -$92
Single Parent -784.4348 0.1073 -$84
Low Income -538.7097 0.2944 -$159
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0063 $50
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0454 $82
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0129 $2
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.9093 $19
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 9489.2800 $870
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0284 $38
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.7738 $53
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0388 -$97
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.0724 $13
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0006 $4
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0002 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0034 -$7
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0022 -$9
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.8867 -$358
Median Days in Program 2.2222 182.0000 $404
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0090 -$246
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0453 $1,660
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0975 $4,603
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0152 -$3,955
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0557 $4,785
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1391 $13,214
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2654 $13,583
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.0980 $4,312
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0343 -$156
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0400 $892
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0399 -$231

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 33.0% for Pennsylvania for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.467) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.137).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.3999 -6.04%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.4399 -2.88%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2821 6.81%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1413 6.47%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0942 8.61%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0726 -4.83%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0189 -1.01%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.1392 -4.58%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0104 2.75%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0122 0.06%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.5005 -9.62%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.1027 -2.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0546 -1.42%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0993 2.61%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1291 -1.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0346 -1.48%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0394 -0.08%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0149 -0.39%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0354 -5.12%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0806 -7.45%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0442 1.99%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0971 3.59%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0511 2.40%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.4574 1.31%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0386 1.50%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0333 1.18%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.1501 -0.92%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0053 -0.23%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0021 -0.82%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.9047 -8.71%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 289.0000 -9.29%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 367.0000 -10.04%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0367 0.59%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0090 -7.31%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0453 20.15%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0975 96.13%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0152 -89.21%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0557 67.95%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1391 223.26%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2654 190.14%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.0980 14.83%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0343 224.25%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0400 -11.40%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0399 -43.14%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 69.3% for Pennsylvania for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.174) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.867).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5140 3.06%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0318 0.39%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2226 -3.20%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3346 -6.87%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1957 0.21%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.1526 -0.96%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0233 0.46%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.3617 -1.50%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0090 -0.48%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0172 -0.58%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0312 0.47%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.3498 2.42%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0082 -0.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0047 0.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0055 0.27%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.1453 3.99%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.2410 0.86%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.1704 -0.80%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0251 -0.35%
Low Income 0.0375 0.8060 3.02%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0394 -0.79%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0834 0.53%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0333 -0.03%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.1698 -1.22%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.4207 1.47%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0131 -0.11%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0169 -0.07%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.4603 2.03%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0003 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0298 0.22%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0251 -0.09%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0143 0.05%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.2949 0.01%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.2736 0.41%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 252.5000 -1.01%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0090 -6.14%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0453 -8.51%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0975 -13.27%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0152 -11.09%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0557 -11.90%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1391 -35.55%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2654 0.66%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.0980 -3.87%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0343 -37.06%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0400 13.21%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0399 -5.93%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $2,881 for Pennsylvania for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14813) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-11932).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5405 -$1,014.75
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0258 -$2.38
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.1829 -$239.47
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3352 -$357.51
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2109 $137.00
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.1602 $306.49
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0223 $14.50
Race: Black -886.3703 0.3698 -$327.78
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0083 -$28.18
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0201 -$3.71
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0350 $32.67
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.3904 $540.25
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0092 -$7.61
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0061 $1.06
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0074 $49.64
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.1829 $112.28
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.2022 $110.44
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.1435 -$71.08
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0223 $54.82
Low Income -305.7985 0.8223 -$251.46
Homeless 983.9044 0.0425 $41.77
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0783 -$100.64
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0264 $26.65
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.1912 $163.42
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.4368 -$123.81
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0136 -$8.55
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0201 -$9.31
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.4674 $75.33
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0004 -$0.08
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0210 -$34.84
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0249 -$13.46
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0175 $1.82
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.2923 -$1.27
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.2888 -$8.05
Median Days in Program 0.5942 242.0000 $143.80
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0090 -$28.70
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0453 $497.82
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0975 $2,102.95
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0152 -$842.85
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0557 $2,495.95
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1391 $1,977.28
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2654 $5,407.36
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.0980 $694.93
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0343 $1,957.91
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0400 $1,744.43
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0399 -$402.15

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 40.8% for Pennsylvania for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.49) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.082).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5295 -14.60%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0476 -3.86%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.2732 -24.66%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3470 -24.28%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1648 -27.04%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.1308 -0.22%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0063 -0.01%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.3442 0.14%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0117 -0.18%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0246 4.85%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.2550 -6.86%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0095 0.99%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0044 -0.28%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0019 0.36%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.3388 0.75%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.4141 8.18%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0148 0.03%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.5131 -3.66%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0265 1.47%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0350 -3.10%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.2480 -1.25%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 293.0000 -9.56%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0589 -2.03%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0090 6.90%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0453 43.35%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0975 56.88%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0152 -65.06%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0557 -79.35%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1391 201.31%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2654 187.49%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.0980 61.76%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0343 174.55%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0400 -29.39%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0399 -4.65%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 69.0% for Pennsylvania for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.337) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.647).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4632 3.71%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4159 4.51%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.2141 -1.84%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1155 -0.08%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1394 -0.88%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0867 2.02%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0136 -0.32%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.2425 -3.90%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0028 0.27%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0113 -0.35%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0137 0.34%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.5607 -0.96%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.0713 0.28%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0357 -0.15%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0629 2.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1023 -6.92%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0325 -1.70%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1345 1.16%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0150 -0.14%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0711 -2.53%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0823 1.79%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0420 -0.08%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.1637 3.32%
Low Income 0.0926 0.5026 4.65%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0228 -0.15%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0808 1.49%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0151 -0.35%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.7880 25.01%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0262 -0.40%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.5776 -2.22%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0098 -0.09%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0108 -0.11%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0005 -0.52%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0008 -0.01%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0229 2.49%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0559 -3.17%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 53.0000 -1.46%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0090 1.53%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0453 6.98%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0975 9.88%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0152 -0.70%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0557 16.52%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1391 13.11%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2654 34.06%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.0980 5.80%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0343 13.40%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0400 6.81%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0399 1.37%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,971 for Pennsylvania for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41939) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35968).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4551 -$1,263
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4353 $665
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2262 $51
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1133 $196
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.1030 $411
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0887 $134
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0125 -$16
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.2314 -$677
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0028 -$7
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0105 -$59
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0133 $142
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.5691 -$1,004
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.0711 -$155
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0369 -$80
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0645 $135
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1024 $7
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0311 -$156
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1664 $76
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0143 -$16
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0523 -$267
Veteran -913.8967 0.0774 -$71
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0408 $64
Single Parent 660.1018 0.1609 $106
Low Income 634.4633 0.4925 $312
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0187 -$66
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0711 $136
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0133 -$144
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8342 -$183
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 7412.1300 $1,936
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0202 $16
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.5757 $262
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0099 $2
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0124 -$8
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0007 -$15
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0007 -$1
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0136 $148
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0517 $86
Median Days in Program 0.8717 58.0000 $51
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0090 $335
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0453 $1,936
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0975 $4,653
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0152 $172
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0557 $3,488
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1391 $9,440
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2654 $13,667
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.0980 $4,218
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0343 $1,429
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0400 $2,056
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0399 -$203

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x